🔗 Share this article

Just two days before the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – going beyond who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and has become a kind of well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in audience and most voters leaned toward the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

How was your night?

I had to do that because they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the tally frequently! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were two big batches of votes added later and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible where yesterday went somewhat badly for Mamdani, where Cuomo was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But the winner gained 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, renters and residents struggling with costs

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president last year backed Zohran this year. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured we might go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to surpass 50%. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not certain, but I believe probable, and I wish he achieves it so then none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That really surprised me. The independent kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added many Republicans on the island with a high participation. I believe there was a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to the former president endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and homeowners all went for Cuomo. Thus there was a little resistance. However overall, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on whether the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential there. Likewise in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that every city in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.