Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.