Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent During President Sheinbaum, Per Official Statistics

The typical count of everyday murders each month in the country has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by new official figures. Nevertheless, security experts have advised that homicide data could fail to point to better national stability.

Marked Reduction in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 murders a day in November compared with almost 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September. This announcement was shared by the head of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we have seen over these months is very important,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that last month the smallest figure of murders were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Violent cartel rivalries, alongside the administration's heavily military efforts to confront the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent times. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than the US. However, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an apparently more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a strategy, we have monitoring of the strategy, and there is specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central elements of the President's security strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Increased cooperation between various departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety researchers cautioned that using homicide statistics to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is especially true given the increase in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be excellent news if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder data and say: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical period last year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer useful for estimating the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the desire to correctly identify and categorize bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was additionally problematic because it might obscure days when there were especially elevated numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day mean renders spikes of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, per government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico is still grappling with high bloodshed, with a number of states in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of young people protested in the capital and across the country to voice their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to construct a story of safety. Politically it’s extremely successful, socially it’s highly questionable,” the analyst remarked.