Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
